Will Joe Bidens Presidency be good or bad for Businesses, Trade and the Markets?
Why a Biden Administration would be Centrist than Other Democratic Administrations
With the ascendancy of Joe Biden to the Presidency of the United States almost certain now despite President Trumps tantrums and his refusal to concede, it is time to look at whether a Biden Administration would be good or bad for the businesses, trade, and the markets?
Indeed, with Joe Biden assembling his Cabinet by picking nominees for the Treasury and other economic portfolios, it is clear that he means business and it remains to be seen whether he would be better than Trump for Big Business and more importantly, not as worse as Trump for Small Businesses.
Moreover, Joe Biden is an avowed globalist and given that he has promised to restore the primacy of the United States in the International Economic Order, it is certain that he would do away with the Protectionist and Inward Looking outlook of his predecessor.
In addition, a Biden Administration might be a Mixed Bag for Markets as he is a centrist and not as unapologetically pro Big Business as Trump.
Apart from this, Joe Biden would most certainly give as much importance to Main Street as Wall Street.
Why Big Business Needs to Worry About the Threat from Socialist Democrats
The choice of the former Fed Chairperson, Janet Yellen, to head the Treasury indicates that a more expansionist Monetary Policy would be the norm under Biden.
However, Yellen is known to be as or more sympathetic to Small Businesses as to towards Big Businesses and hence, it is almost certain that Wall Street would be in for a surprise.
Indeed, Biden had promised during the campaign to Roll Back the Tax Cuts to Big Businesses and High Net worth Individuals that Trump had passed and which made him a darling of these entities.
If and at all, Biden gets around to repealing the Tax Cuts, it is almost certain that he would earn the ire of those who matter as far as the economy is concerned.
This would be the defining theme of a Biden Administration as Democrats are usually more inclined towards the Lay Persons more than Businesses.
Moreover, the Democratic Party in the United States is now in the Throes of a Transformation with more and more candidates leaning towards socialism and Welfarism getting elected and this trend is likely to impact the policies of the New Administration.
Therefore, Big Business might look askance at a Biden Administration.
Why American Presidents Become Pro Business Once in Office and Governing
Having said that, Biden is definitely not a socialist and as we have seen with Obamas Presidency wherein almost immediately after taking office, he was more Pro Business than was originally thought or even going by his promises during the campaign.
Therefore, despite all the noise that is being made now about caring for the lay persons, the Proof of the Pudding is in the Eating, and hence, it is certain that Biden would also follow the long tradition in American politics of putting the interests of Profits before People.
This is because the American Political and Economic System is such that Socialist and even Centrist Administrations find it hard to pass laws in Congress and moreover, with Campaign Donations being exchanged for policy favours, a realistic outcome would be that Biden would lean towards Big Business.
Of course, he would still sneak in little changes here and there for the common people, but, the presence of Mega Donors such as Michael Bloomberg and George Soros means that he would need to balance all sides.
Indeed, as can be seen from the repeated successes during the primaries followed by the sudden withdrawals of Bernie Sanders, socialism would need to wait.
It is Literally Now or Never to Pull Back from the Economic Abyss That Covid Caused
While the sections above showed how the Left and the Right/Centrist Wings of the Democratic Party would pull and push Biden towards policies to their liking, his immediate priority would be to address the vast and unprecedented economic devastation wrought by Covid.
Indeed, it is almost certain that Biden would be engaged in putting out the fires of chaos and disruption in addition to the real forest fires that are engulfing California for the first few months of his Presidency and hence, there is nothing dramatic that is expected during this phase.
Moreover, he has his job cut out as the Stimulus Packages need to be passed immediately to alleviate the suffering and misery of the Majority of Americans who are tottering on the edge of devastation.
In addition, with Covid continuing to wreak havoc in the United States, Biden might even go for so-called Radical Policies such as UBI or Universal Basic Income.
On the other hand, he would also be consumed by the need to save Obamas and his Signature Healthcare Reform Act that is facing legal challenges.
Therefore, he might play it safe and focus on policy tweaks rather than taking a Big Bang approach to reforms.
Taking Over at a Particularly Dark Time
Last, whatever policies he passes and whichever side of the spectrum he leans on, Joe Biden would restore a Sense of Normalcy and Predictability to the Presidency. This by itself would be enough for many who have grown weary of Trumps Tantrums and hence, Biden might be the Balm for their Frayed Nerves. Indeed, if not anything, Biden can be a Calming influence and his friendships across the political divide would help him as a seasoned politician and lawmaker to score legislative victories. To conclude, Biden is taking over during a Dark Time and we must wish him good luck.
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