Why are Banks Closely Regulated?
The banking system forms the bedrock of any financial system and even the entire economy. This is because the banking system channels the savings of individuals to the industrious. If there is a problem with this system, both the individuals and the business class are likely to be seriously affected. Therefore, maintaining the health of […]
Use Cases of Artificial Intelligence in Commercial Banking
In a previous couple of articles, we have already seen how artificial intelligence is useful in the field of commercial banking. We have also seen the various advantages and disadvantages of deploying artificial intelligence in commercial banking lending. However, it needs to be understood that lending is not the only department in commercial banking that […]
Optimism Bias
The gist of optimism bias is often expressed by using the popular saying “rose-tinted glasses.” In real life, it is helpful to be an optimist. Optimists often live happier and healthier lives. However, when it comes to financial markets, a healthy dose of skepticism is not only necessary but also recommended by many experts. In […]
How Credit Rating Works ?
It may seem like the banking business is about money. However, the banking business is really all about information. Until banks have the required information about a prospective borrower, they cannot ascertain the risk and make the loan. This is where credit rating comes to the rescue. It this article, we will have a closer […]
How Reserve Requirements Work ?
Reserve requirements are one of the most important features of modern central banking. We hear about reserve requirements almost every day in the media. When central banks like the Fed change these requirements, it is said to have a huge impact on the markets. Liquidity worth billions of dollars is said to be either released […]
Cash flows vary from project to project. In some cases cash flows will occur evenly over time. There might be payments of similar amounts that will be spread out over a time period at regular intervals.
On the other hand, there might be payments which are irregular and have no pattern whatsoever. The challenge in corporate finance is to value these different streams of cash flows. Here is how this is done:
The present value of a stream of cash flows can be expressed as a lump sum amount. This can be done only after all the expected future receipts are converted to their present day values. The sum of these values is then equal to the value of the expected stream of cash flows. This is exactly how the value of a future stream of payments is derived.
The calculation of the present value of the future stream of money depends upon the nature of the cash flows. If the cash flows are spread out in an even pattern, shortcuts like annuities and perpetuities can be used and the value of large streams can also be calculated very easily. However, if the cash flows are uneven, individual payments have to be discounted to their present value and then all those payments need to be added up.
Now, there are many investments that go on for a period of 10 years, 15 years and so on. The inflation forecast does not remain the same over such an extended period of time. In fact historically, the inflation will change every time there is a change in the business cycle. Hence, for investments over a long period of time, multiple inflation forecasts may be required where different rates are used in different years.
Moreover, in projects where cash flow goes on for multiple years, the uncertainty also increases with increased time. It is a fundamental rule in corporate finance that the farther the expected payments are, the more uncertain they are. This is because over an extended period there might be political, economic or social changes that might affect the cash flows. Hence different rates may be used to discount the cash flows in different years to get a more accurate picture.
Analysts almost always use multiple discount rates to represent the different uncertainties that cash flows in different years have inherent in them. Moreover, the value of the future cash flows is highly sensitive to discount rates. Hence, small changes in the discount rate can bring about big changes in valuation. This, coupled with the fact that discount rates are very difficult to predict in advance makes investing an art rather than a science.
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